MD 0650 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA
Mesoscale Discussion 0650
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0259 PM CDT Fri Apr 28 2023
Areas affected...portions of central and northern North Carolina
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 281959Z - 282130Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...A couple of instances of large hail or damaging gusts may
accompany the stronger storms, especially with cells traversing the
warm side of a baroclinic zone. The severe threat should be isolated
and a WW issuance is not expected.
DISCUSSION...Ample insolation atop a stationary, diffusing
baroclinic zone is contributing to 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE ahead of
strengthening storms which have initiated off of the higher terrain
of the central Appalachians. Veering tropospheric winds are
contributing to 35-45 kts of effective bulk shear, which may foster
storm organization and longevity. At the moment, the best chance for
an instance of severe wind or hail should exist with storms that can
traverse the baroclinic zone, where enhanced low-level convergence
may locally augment thunderstorm updrafts. Nonetheless, the severe
threat should remain isolated overall and a WW issuance is not
expected.
..Squitieri/Thompson.. 04/28/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...AKQ...RAH...RNK...GSP...
LAT...LON 35398064 35488138 35688161 36058160 36208148 36358104
36527981 36587832 36487769 36127754 35647780 35287844
35237941 35398064
