MD 0669 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 226… FOR SRN TO ERN NEB
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0669
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1043 PM CDT WED MAY 02 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...SRN TO ERN NEB
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 226...
VALID 030343Z - 030445Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 226
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...STRONGEST STORMS WITH AN ATTENDANT THREAT TO PRODUCE LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WITHIN THE SOUTH
CENTRAL TO ERN NEB PORTIONS OF WW 226 THROUGH THE LATE EVENING/EARLY
OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
DISCUSSION...AT 0330Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED THE MOST
INTENSE TSTMS HAD REMAINED OVER SERN NEB /SERN HALL AND NERN ADAMS
COUNTIES INTO CLAY COUNTY/. TRENDS WITH THE STORM IN FILLMORE COUNTY
SUGGEST SOME WEAKENING...POTENTIALLY DUE TO A STRENGTHENING CAP NWD
FROM KS INTO SRN NEB GIVEN THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
OTHERWISE...THE STRONGER STORMS FROM CLAY COUNTY TO INVOF HSI MAY BE
JUST FAR ENOUGH N THAT THE STRENGTHENING SLY LLJ FROM OK TO ERN NEB
IS OFFSETTING THE CAP WITH A FEED OF MODERATE TO STRONG MUCAPE.
THE CORRIDOR OF STRONGEST INSTABILITY EXTENDED FROM THE MID MO
VALLEY SWD TO CENTRAL KS...WHILE EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 35-55 KT
OVER ERN NEB INTO SERN SD/WRN IA/SWRN MN IS MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR
ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL THREAT
FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH NWD EXTENT /INTO NERN NEB AND ADJACENT SERN
SD/NWRN IA/SWRN MN/ APPEARS LIMITED GIVEN ITS DISTANCE AWAY FROM
STRONGER LOW LEVEL INFLOW OVER SRN/SERN NEB. THIS REASONING WOULD
PRECLUDE A NEW WW TO THE N/NE OF WW 226 AT THIS TIME.
..PETERS.. 05/03/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX...GID...
LAT...LON 40019737 40099929 41129873 42189784 42889712 43209669
43179579 42489558 41429581 40479654 40019737
via SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0669.html
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