MD 0672 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN NM…THE TX/OK PANHANDLES…FAR SOUTHEASTERN CO…AND SOUTHWESTERN KS
Mesoscale Discussion 0672
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0342 PM CDT Wed May 03 2023
Areas affected...Portions of northeastern NM...the TX/OK
Panhandles...far southeastern CO...and southwestern KS
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 032042Z - 032315Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated hail and strong/gusty winds may occur as
thunderstorms spread east-southeastward over the next few hours.
Watch issuance appears unlikely at this time.
DISCUSSION...Convection has recently formed over the higher terrain
of the Raton Pass/Mesa vicinity and eastward into parts of
northeastern NM and southeastern CO. Although modestly forced, this
activity is occurring along a weak surface lee trough. Current
expectations are for these thunderstorms to move generally
east-southeastward through the rest of the afternoon and into the
early evening. Surface temperature-dewpoint spreads of 25-30+ F are
present with a deeply/well-mixed boundary layer. Occasional strong
to severe downdraft winds may occur with the more robust cores,
especially if thunderstorms can congeal into a small cluster or two.
Isolated hail also appears possible. MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg and
deep-layer shear of 20-30 kt are somewhat marginal to support more
than an isolated severe threat. Therefore, watch issuance will
probably not be needed.
..Gleason/Thompson.. 05/03/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...DDC...AMA...PUB...ABQ...
LAT...LON 35310299 35900402 36250426 36800363 37510227 37660148
37400070 36370026 35730061 35180164 35310299
