SPC MD 679

MD 0679 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR SERN NEB…FAR N-CNTRL KS…SWRN IA


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0679
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0341 PM CDT THU MAY 03 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NEB...FAR N-CNTRL KS...SWRN IA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 032041Z - 032245Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SERN
NEB...FAR N-CNTRL KS AND SWRN IA. WW MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF
THIS AREA IN THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS.

DISCUSSION...SURFACE OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATES SURFACE-BASED CINH
HAS ERODED ALONG A CORRIDOR FROM N-CNTRL KS NEWD INTO SWRN IA INVOF
A WEAK PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S AND DEWPOINTS IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S BELOW STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE
RESULTED IN A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS /SBCAPE VALUES AOA 3000 J/KG /
ACROSS THE AREA. INCREASING THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS ANTICIPATED AS
THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH PROGRESSES SLOWLY SEWD.
ELY/ESELY STORM MOTION WILL TAKE ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP INTO A MORE
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH BULK SHEAR FORECAST TO INCREASE. FORECAST
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR GREATER STORM COVERAGE E WITHIN
THE INSTABILITY AXIS INTO THE EVENING. STORMS IN THIS ENVIRONMENT
WILL POSE A THREAT OF LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS AND A WATCH MAY BE
NEEDED.

..MOSIER/BUNTING/CARBIN.. 05/03/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...GID...GLD...

LAT...LON   40119512 39679691 39489828 39409880 39399925 39519972
            40039983 40389972 40579940 40779889 41309693 41519543
            41579448 41529394 41249360 40569399 40119512

via SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0679.html