MD 0068 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN COLORADO…NORTHWESTERN KANSAS AND SOUTHWESTERN INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA
Mesoscale Discussion 0068
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0951 PM CST Tue Jan 17 2023
Areas affected...parts of northeastern Colorado...northwestern
Kansas and southwestern into central Nebraska
Concerning...Heavy snow
Valid 180351Z - 180745Z
SUMMARY...Within an evolving area of mostly moderate snow, a period
of heavy snow rates on the order of 1-2 inches per hour is possible
in a narrow northeastward developing corridor through 2-4 AM CST.
DISCUSSION...To the north of a developing surface low, forecast to
migrate across the Oklahoma Panhandle vicinity late this evening
into the overnight hours, sub-freezing near-surface temperatures are
generally entrenched from central/southwestern Nebraska and
northwest Kansas into the Front Range of the Rockies. Surface
temperatures may still be near or a bit above freezing across much
of this region, but the Rapid Refresh suggests this is beneath an
axis of -2 to -4 C air as low as the 850 mb level. Temperatures
around -15 C (most conducive to dendritic ice crystal growth) are
generally centered in layer around 550-600 mb, which is saturated or
becoming saturated, in response to large-scale ascent downstream of
a mid-level low within larger-scale troughing progressing across the
southern Rockies.
This will continue to lead to an expanding area of moderate to heavy
snow across much of northeastern Colorado into western and central
Nebraska through the 08-10Z time frame. Beneath the stronger
mid/upper forcing for ascent, it appears that a north-northeastward
migrating lower/mid-tropospheric speed maximum (including 30-40 kt
in the 850-700 mb layer) may contribute to period of maximized lift
within the dendritic growth zone, along a narrow developing corridor
of enhanced warm advection. In the presence of precipitable water
increasing up to .5 inches, this may be accompanied by snow rates up
to 1-2 inches per hour.
..Kerr.. 01/18/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...GLD...BOU...
LAT...LON 40990217 41620075 41219914 40190034 39840108 39340196
38940312 39850320 40310287 40990217
