MD 0680 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR EASTERN WY…FAR NORTH-CENTRAL CO
Mesoscale Discussion 0680
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0151 PM CDT Fri May 05 2023
Areas affected...eastern WY...far north-central CO
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 051851Z - 052045Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are likely to
develop and intensify through the mid-late afternoon. Isolated
large hail and severe gusts are the primary threats.
DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery shows developing
thunderstorms near the I-25 corridor in southeast WY and other
deepening convection over the CO Front Range. Relatively moist
upslope flow into the Cheyenne Ridge is maintaining 40s dewpoints
into Weld Co., CO and from the NE Panhandle into far eastern WY.
Strong surface heating will contribute to weak buoyancy with upwards
of 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE over eastern WY. Although the mid to
upper-level ridge extends from KS northwestward into eastern WY, the
magnitude of moisture coupled with upslope flow will lead to at
least isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms developing by
mid-late afternoon. Deep-layer shear will remain limited and only
favor multicellular storm modes, but the very steep low to mid-level
lapse rates will promote both hail growth and potential severe gusts
with the stronger cores.
..Smith/Guyer.. 05/05/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...UNR...BOU...CYS...
LAT...LON 44150585 44660587 44960551 44810503 43710430 42550409
40550415 40400457 40490503 40800518 42660514 43420543
44150585
