MD 0681 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH LIKELY FOR CENTRAL TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0681
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0242 PM CDT Fri May 05 2023
Areas affected...central Texas
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely
Valid 051942Z - 052145Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...Scattered storms are expected to form over the next few
hours across central Texas, with a threat of severe hail and a few
severe gusts.
DISCUSSION...A CU field continues to expand over parts of the
Edwards Plateau, with additional towering CU extending
east/northeast toward Denton. Strong heating over the elevated
terrain has led to an uncapped air mass, with modest destabilization
currently as dewpoints have mixed. Coincidentally, all of this
convection happens to be colocated with the 850 mb theta-e ridge.
With time, and despite only weak convergence, a few storms will
likely emerge out of the coalescing CU field, with a threat of
locally damaging hail or severe gusts. Mid to high level winds are
not particularly strong, suggesting multicell storm mode with
sporadic strong cores and updrafts propagating in various
directions, with downdrafts aided by the well-mixed boundary layer.
..Jewell/Guyer.. 05/05/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...
LAT...LON 31230013 31860022 32749991 32979957 33179740 32979720
32569686 31949687 31299703 30699725 30389760 30489900
30739971 31230013
