MD 0069 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR EAST TX INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION
Mesoscale Discussion 0069
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0728 AM CST Wed Jan 18 2023
Areas affected...East TX into the ArkLaTex region
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 181328Z - 181530Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...Storms are expected to gradually increase in coverage and
intensity through the morning. Some threat for severe wind/hail and
possibly a tornado or two will evolve with time. Watch issuance is
possible, though the timing of any watch remains uncertain.
DISCUSSION...Storms are gradually increasing from east TX into the
ArkLaTex region this morning, within a warm-advection regime
associated with a deepening cyclone over the central Plains. Despite
the presence of seasonably rich low-level moisture, mediocre
midlevel lapse rates (as noted on the 12Z SHV sounding) are limiting
buoyancy to some extent, with MLCAPE generally in the 500-1000 J/kg
range. However, as convection gradually deepens and matures through
the morning, a few organized storms may develop, given the favorable
low-level and deep-layer shear profiles noted on the 12Z SHV
sounding and recent KSHV VWP data. A couple of supercells and/or
small bowing segments may evolve out of ongoing convection later
this morning, posing a threat of a tornado or two, strong/damaging
gusts, and perhaps some marginal hail. Watch issuance is possible in
order to address the severe threat, though the timing of any watch
remains uncertain due to the rather gradual intensification that is
currently anticipated.
..Dean/Thompson.. 01/18/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LZK...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...
LAT...LON 31379570 33139486 33679458 34339412 34159316 33719285
33219273 32769289 31759345 31109406 30899460 30839496
30869540 31179577 31379570
