SPC MD 690

MD 0690 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR SOUTH CENTRAL KS

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0690
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1220 AM CDT FRI MAY 04 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH CENTRAL KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 040520Z - 040615Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A WW MAY BE NEEDED FOR PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KS.
SPATIOTEMPORAL UNCERTAINTIES MAY PRECLUDE WW ISSUANCE...THOUGH
CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED.

STRONG-SVR STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS A SMALL PART OF SOUTH CENTRAL
KS...SINCE 0415-0420Z PER REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY...WILL CONTINUE TO
POSE A THREAT FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED SVR WEATHER AS ACTIVITY MOVES
ENEWD.

DISCUSSION...OBJECTIVE ANALYSES INDICATED THE STRONG-SVR STORMS THAT
DEVELOPED QUICKLY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KS /NRN COMANCHE AND SRN KIOWA
COUNTIES EWD TO PRATT AND NRN BARBER COUNTIES/ FORMED ALONG THE W/NW
EXTENT OF MOISTURE RETURN INTO A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS /MUCAPE
3000-4000 J PER KG/.  IN ADDITION...A WEAK MIDLEVEL TROUGH ANALYZED
OVER NERN NM PER 00Z UPPER AIR DATA MAY BE PROVIDING SUFFICIENT DPVA
FOR THIS TSTM DEVELOPMENT.  THUS...GIVEN THIS PROGRESSIVE MIDLEVEL
FEATURE AND CONTINUED MOISTURE AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WITHIN THE
NOSE OF A 50 KT SLY LLJ PER AREA WIND PROFILERS AND WSR-88D VWP
DATA...ADDITIONAL TSTMS APPEAR PROBABLE OVERNIGHT ACROSS SRN KS.
18Z/00Z GFS INDICATED CONVECTIVE QPF OVER PARTS OF SRN KS THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.  THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 30-40 KT SUGGESTS ORGANIZED STORMS PRODUCING
LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

..PETERS/CORFIDI.. 05/04/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...DDC...

LAT...LON   38209872 38259738 37859691 37379709 37139805 37079907
            37099979 37329995 37689970 38209872

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