MD 0699 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 240… FOR SWRN OK INTO SWRN TX
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0699
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0530 PM CDT FRI MAY 04 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN OK INTO SWRN TX
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 240...
VALID 042230Z - 042330Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 240
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF DMGG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL
ARE INCREASING IN COVERAGE ALONG THE DRYLINE. THESE STORMS ARE
SLOWLY PROGRESSING EWD AT ABOUT 15 KTS.
DISCUSSION...THE SRN EDGE OF AN UPPER WAVE NOTED ON 22Z WV IMAGERY
FROM SERN KS...CNTRL OK INTO N CNTRL TX HAS LIKELY PROVIDED SUBTLE
FORCING FOR ASCENT...ALLOWING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE DRYLINE. AMPLE SURFACE HEATING HAS CONTRIBUTED TO
TEMPERATURES NEAR 100 SURROUNDING THE DRYLINE...WHICH HAS BEEN MORE
THAN SUFFICIENT TO ERODE ANY REMAINING CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. AS
SUCH...STORMS HAVE GRADUALLY BEEN INCREASING IN COVERAGE. DESPITE
THE SLOW FORWARD MOTION /MEASURED AT ABOUT 15 KTS/...THESE AREAS OF
CONVECTION WILL GRADUALLY PROGRESS INTO A MORE UNSTABLE AIR
MASS...POSSIBLY SUPPORTING SEMI-ORGANIZED CLUSTERS AND SMALL BOWING
SEGMENTS GIVEN MODEST FLOW ALOFT...SHOULD A FEW ORGANIZED COLD POOLS
DEVELOP. HOWEVER...THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE PROGRESSING AWAY
FROM MORE FAVORABLE SURFACE CONVERGENCE...WHICH MAY LEAD TO A
WEAKENING OF A FEW STORMS AS WELL. A FEW HI-RES MODELS INDICATE
POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT INVOF AN AREA OF CU EXTENDING FROM NEAR ACT
NWWD TO MWL. HOWEVER...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW LITTLE
CONFLUENCE/CONVERGENCE THAT MAY FOSTER GREATER UPWARD GROWTH...SO
CONFIDENCE IN THIS ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT REMAINS LOW.
..HURLBUT.. 05/04/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...MAF...
LAT...LON 34419841 33779782 32789779 32449857 31989941 31400021
30980128 31050190 31660111 32350018 33409933 34649898
34419841
via SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0699.html
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