MD 0007 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 1… FOR NORTH-CENTRAL ARKANSAS INTO FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL MISSOURI
Mesoscale Discussion 0007
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0319 PM CST Mon Jan 02 2023
Areas affected...North-central Arkansas into far south-central
Missouri
Concerning...Tornado Watch 1...
Valid 022119Z - 022245Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 1 continues.
SUMMARY...The supercell tornado risk continues across portions of
Tornado Watch 01 in north-central AR, and a local spatial extension
of the watch could be warranted to the AR/MO border.
DISCUSSION...Regional radar data shows scattered to numerous
thunderstorms spreading northward across parts of northern AR this
afternoon, with periodic strong/rotating updrafts embedded within
these storms. The 18Z LZK sounding showed modest midlevel lapse
rates atop upper 60s boundary-layer dewpoints (yielding moderate
instability). While minimal convective inhibition and modest ascent
in the vicinity of an east-west-oriented warm front are favoring
convective clustering/upscale growth, a large/expanding
clockwise-turning low-level hodograph (around 200 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH)
per LZK VWP data is supporting embedded supercell structures given
the surface-based instability -- favoring a continued
tornado/damaging-wind risk.
This activity will generally spread/expand northward toward the
MO/AR border, where lower 60s boundary-layer dewpoints are evident.
RAP/NAM forecast soundings suggest that this low-level moisture will
be sufficient for surface-based storms possibly into far
south-central MO this afternoon. Therefore, a local spatial
extension of Tornado Watch 01 may be warranted to the AR/MO border.
Farther north into southern MO, upper 50s dewpoints north of the
effective warm front cast uncertainty on organized surface-based
storms, though trends will be monitored.
..Weinman.. 01/02/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...TSA...
LAT...LON 36069175 35219189 34679252 34639311 34859371 35289389
35929368 36389343 36639316 36679270 36629222 36499187
36069175
