MD 0705 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NORTHEAST COLORADO INTO SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA
Mesoscale Discussion 0705
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1249 PM CDT Sun May 07 2023
Areas affected...northeast Colorado into southwest and central
Nebraska
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 071749Z - 071945Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...A gradual increase in thunderstorm coverage is expected
through the afternoon. Isolated large hail and strong gusts are
possible with this activity, and a severe thunderstorm watch may be
needed sometime this afternoon.
DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms are developing early this afternoon along
a stationary boundary draped across northern NE. While
boundary-layer moisture is expected to remain modest through the
day, strong heating and steep midlevel lapse rates are contributing
to moderate MUCAPE. Thunderstorm coverage is expected to gradually
increase through the afternoon as a shortwave impulse over CO ejects
northeast. Modest low to midlevel flow, increasing with height above
500 mb will be sufficient for 35-45 kt effective shear magnitudes,
resulting in organized cells/clusters. Elongated hodographs, in
combination with steep midlevel lapse rates, will support large hail
potential. Furthermore, steep low-level lapse rates and a relatively
dry boundary-layer also will support strong outflow gusts.
Additional convection is expected to develop along the boundary, and
further southwest into northeast CO in a low-level upslope flow
regime later this afternoon. A severe thunderstorm watch may be
needed this afternoon, but timing is still a bit uncertain.
..Leitman/Hart.. 05/07/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS...
LAT...LON 40680359 40370376 40090362 39970303 40000243 40520041
40739966 41199863 41469832 41879818 42219855 42369901
42379969 42280043 41680189 41050298 40680359
