MD 0708 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR EAST TEXAS…NORTHWEST LOUISIANA…AND FAR SOUTHERN ARKANSAS.
Mesoscale Discussion 0708
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0133 PM CDT Sun May 07 2023
Areas affected...east Texas...northwest Louisiana...and far southern
Arkansas.
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 071833Z - 072000Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...A few strong to potentially severe storms are possible
this afternoon/evening in the ArkLaTex.
DISCUSSION...A broad region of stratiform rain exists across the
Texas Gulf Coast which is remnant from overnight convection spawned
by a mid-level shortwave trough moving through the region. Ahead of
this shortwave trough, sufficient warming has occurred across east
Texas, northern Louisiana, and far southern Arkansas to erode
inhibition. Therefore, as weak ascent ahead of this mid-level trough
has been sufficient for storm development across east Texas. Despite
filtered sun, at least some continued heating is expected with
MLCAPE potentially peaking around 3000 J/kg.
Shear is weak across the region (20 to 25 knots per SPC
mesoanalysis) which will limit storm organization and the overall
severe threat. However, steep lapse rates and strong instability
will be sufficient for some threat for strong to severe storms with
a threat for large hail and damaging wind gusts.
..Bentley/Hart.. 05/07/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...LCH...SHV...
LAT...LON 31089415 31509440 32199446 33459423 33639300 33519237
32959195 31999184 31249254 30999347 31089415
