MD 0722 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND NORTHWESTERN INDIANA
Mesoscale Discussion 0722
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0640 PM CDT Sun May 07 2023
Areas affected...portions of northern and central Illinois and
northwestern Indiana
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 072340Z - 080045Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent
SUMMARY...Developing storms may pose a risk for wind and hail across
portions of IL and IN this evening. Confidence in storm evolution is
low but, trends will be monitored for a possible severe thunderstorm
watch.
DISCUSSION...To the east of the ongoing cluster of thunderstorms
across eastern IA and northwestern IL, new storm development has
been noted in the last hour over portions of northern IL/IN. Likely
driven in part by warm advection and storm scale lift from numerous
boundaries, additional thunderstorm development is possible this
evening. 1500-2500 J/kg of MLCAPE and 40-45 kt of effective shear
will support the potential for robust/organized single and multicell
updrafts capable of large hail and damaging gusts. Hi-res guidance
suggests storms may evolve into organized clusters, possibly growing
upscale with the storms farther west. However, given the complex
surface pattern, confidence in convective evolution is very low.
Trends are being monitored for a possible severe thunderstorm watch
this evening.
..Lyons/Guyer.. 05/07/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...
LAT...LON 40818909 41568906 41738886 41628804 41488750 41278701
40888696 40538714 40418747 40358794 40408847 40518871
40818909
