MD 0730 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR FAR NORTHEAST IOWA INTO FAR SOUTHEASTERN MINNESOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 0730
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0232 PM CDT Mon May 08 2023
Areas affected...far northeast Iowa into far southeastern Minnesota
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 081932Z - 082100Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...A brief landspout tornado or small hail may accompany one
of the stronger storms this afternoon. A WW issuance is not
currently anticipated.
DISCUSSION...Storms are slowly growing in intensity per MRMS mosaic
radar imagery along the IA/MN border. These storms are developing
along a baroclinic zone, with mid 50s F dewpoints and 7-8 C/km
low-level lapse rates noted along the warm side of the boundary.
Though modest, the 18Z mesoanalysis depicts some overlap of up to
100 J/kg 0-3 km CAPE and low-level vertical vorticity, and this
low-level buoyancy is forecast to only get stronger through the day.
It is not out of the question that a landspout tornado could develop
during the afternoon, along with an instance or two of small hail.
Given the isolated, localized nature of the severe threat, a WW
issuance is not currently expected.
..Squitieri/Guyer.. 05/08/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX...
LAT...LON 43619258 44019273 44839285 45019274 44949251 44429204
43929172 43299144 42849149 42499155 42409173 42459197
43109236 43619258
