SPC MD 733

MD 0733 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR SRN THROUGH NERN KS


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0733
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0240 PM CDT SUN MAY 06 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN THROUGH NERN KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 061940Z - 062115Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ALONG SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT ACROSS KS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  WW
IS BEING CONSIDERED FOR THIS REGION.

DISCUSSION...DESPITE THE CONSIDERABLE HIGH CLOUDS NOTED ACROSS KS
INHIBITION IS GRADUALLY WEAKENING ALONG SFC FRONT THAT STRETCHES
FROM NEAR STJ TO ICT.  TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOWER 80S
AND CONVECTION IS GRADUALLY DEEPENING ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THIS IS SUFFICIENT FOR TSTM
DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE CONVERGENCE NOTED ALONG THE SLOW
MOVING BOUNDARY.  LATEST THINKING IS ISOLATED STORMS WILL EVOLVE
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITHIN FAIRLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS THEN SPREAD
EWD ACROSS MUCH OF ERN KS INTO WRN MO.  WITH STRONGER SHEAR TRAILING
THE WIND SHIFT IT APPEARS LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS WILL BE THE
PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS.

..DARROW/MEAD.. 05/06/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...

LAT...LON   37269832 38609694 39119609 39599445 38159435 37099644
            37269832

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