MD 0738 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH LIKELY FOR SOUTHERN NEBRASKA…NORTHERN KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0738
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0624 AM CDT Tue May 09 2023
Areas affected...Southern Nebraska...Northern Kansas
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely
Valid 091124Z - 091230Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...A threat for large hail is expected to develop over parts
of southern Nebraska and northern Kansas over the next 1 to 2 hours.
WW issuance will likely be needed.
DISCUSSION...The latest WSR-88D radar imagery from Goodland shows
three short line segments ongoing in southwest Nebraska. This
activity is located near the nose of a 35 to 45 knot low-level jet.
This feature will likely strengthen over the next few hours,
resulting in a continued increase in convective coverage. The storms
will move east-southeastward along a gradient of moderate
instability across far southern Nebraska and northern Kansas. MUCAPE
of 1000 to 2000 J/kg, with effective shear near 50 knots, evident on
regional forecast soundings, will likely be favorable for supercells
with large hail. Although the storms will likely remain elevated, a
few strong wind gusts will also be possible.
..Broyles/Grams.. 05/09/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...LBF...GLD...BOU...
LAT...LON 39169821 39329755 39809732 40139754 40649857 40949963
41210068 41270152 41140190 40730232 40240233 39910178
39570054 39259904 39169821
