MD 0742 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF EAST TEXAS…NORTHERN AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA…AND SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI.
Mesoscale Discussion 0742
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0158 PM CDT Tue May 09 2023
Areas affected...Portions of east Texas...northern and central
Louisiana...and southwest Mississippi.
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 091858Z - 092030Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...A few strong storms are possible along an arcing line of
storms this afternoon.
DISCUSSION...An arcing line of storms has developed from far eastern
Texas across southern Louisiana. These storms have formed in an
environment with ~2000 J/kg MLCAPE (per SPC Mesoanalysis) and
effective shear less than 15 knots. Therefore, storms have been
predictably weak and unorganized. There is some potential for cold
pool intensification with these developing storms which could lead
to a slightly higher damaging wind threat as they move north into
northern Louisiana and western Mississippi. However, the environment
should not change much through the afternoon and since there have
not been any reports or stronger cores thus far, expect any severe
weather threat to remain brief and weak.
..Bentley/Guyer.. 05/09/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...HGX...
LAT...LON 30559451 30759500 31719513 32659429 33069347 33009188
32949124 32079014 31198941 30758946 30318995 30349162
30519287 30559451
