MD 0753 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTHEAST COLORADO…FAR SOUTHEAST WYOMING…AND THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
Mesoscale Discussion 0753
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0117 AM CDT Wed May 10 2023
Areas affected...Northeast Colorado...far southeast Wyoming...and
the Nebraska Panhandle
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 100617Z - 100715Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated thunderstorms continue across the region posing a
risk for large hail.
DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms continue this morning across the area
within a broad, moist upslope regime. Additionally, increasing
large-scale ascent/height falls are overspreading the area,
supporting/maintaining ongoing thunderstorms. The thermodynamic
(CAPE around 1000 J/kg) and kinematic (effective-layer shear around
40 knots) environment will remain favorable for large hail and gusty
thunderstorm outflows. In particular, a thunderstorm complex along
the I-25 corridor in northeast Colorado has maximum MESH values
exceeding 2 inches within the past hour. This complex may continue
to produce large hail for a couple more hours before weakening as it
moves farther into the plains of northeast Colorado. Elsewhere, the
large hail and gusty wind threat should remain more episodic,
governed by storm-scale processes. As such, the limited
spatio-temporal nature of the overall threat should preclude the
need for a severe thunderstorm watch.
..Marsh/Grams.. 05/10/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LBF...BOU...CYS...
LAT...LON 40110543 41180505 42130409 42240310 41630220 40710227
40010370 39810492 40110543
