MD 0787 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VIRGINIA INTO NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA
Mesoscale Discussion 0787
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0113 PM CDT Sat May 13 2023
Areas affected...central and southern Virginia into northern North
Carolina
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 131813Z - 132145Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Scattered storms are expected to develop over the next few
hours across central into south-central Virginia, and into northern
North Carolina. Marginally severe hail or wind gusts will be
possible.
DISCUSSION...Surface analysis shows a cold front drifting south
across northern VA and southern MD, with a weak low over central VA.
A subtle lee trough also extends southwestward from the low, near
the low-level lapse rate plume.
Visible imagery indicates areas of heating will persist this
afternoon, with gradual destabilization. Substantial towering CU are
developing near and south of the low, and this will be a likely
initiation point especially as the cold front continues south.
A very moist air mass is in place with a plume of 1.50 to 1.75"
total precipitable water, and this will likely aid moist downdraft
potential during the peak heating hours. In addition, modest
midlevel winds out of the west/northwest with around 30 kt effective
shear may result in a few cells capable of marginal hail, with
motions of 15-20 kt to the southeast.
..Jewell/Mosier.. 05/13/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...
LAT...LON 37267936 37807874 37867860 37917815 38107764 38107701
37887680 36667747 36327778 36057840 36017987 36288015
36748002 36937968 37267936
