MD 0794 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NORTHERN INTO EASTERN MISSOURI AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS
Mesoscale Discussion 0794
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1243 PM CDT Sun May 14 2023
Areas affected...northern into eastern Missouri and southwest
Illinois
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 141743Z - 142015Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...Storms are expected to develop over northern Missouri, and
may pose a damaging wind and marginal hail threat as they progress
east/southeastward toward the Mississippi River and into western
Illinois.
DISCUSSION...Visible imagery shows towering cumulus and deepening
convection now over northern MO, near a weak boundary. This boundary
becomes less defines farther east into IL, but a minor differential
heating zone does exist.
While winds aloft are not very strong, heating and ample moisture
will continue to destabilize the region. Conditions appear favorable
for a cluster of storms to form near the stronger part of the front
over northern MO, and hodographs will favor and east/southeastward
storm motion. Given the favorable time of day with steepening
low-level lapse rates and precipitable water near 1.50", at least
isolated severe gust potential appears likely, with marginal hail in
some of the stronger cores as well.
..Jewell/Guyer.. 05/14/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...LSX...EAX...
LAT...LON 39199353 39439369 39719362 39979306 40119254 39919093
38978922 38498902 38218906 37798931 37798967 38399110
38759201 38949266 39099327 39199353
