MD 0798 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE INTO NORTHERN ALABAMA
Mesoscale Discussion 0798
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0127 PM CDT Mon May 15 2023
Areas affected...Southern Middle Tennessee into northern Alabama
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 151827Z - 152030Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...Thunderstorm clustering is probable over the next few
hours across southern Tennessee into adjacent portions of northern
Alabama and northwest Georgia.
DISCUSSION...Over the past 1-2 hours, scattered thunderstorms have
developed across Middle TN along a diffuse warm frontal zone. Much
of this activity has been rather short-lived with periodic intense
updraft pulses followed by rapid weakening; a consequence of the
weakly sheared environment. However, temperatures warming into the
low 80s has allowed for surface-based parcels to reach their
convective temperatures, which will foster additional convective
development along outflows and/or within the frontal zone. While
sporadic/isolated damaging downburst winds are possible with more
intense, but transient, cells, a somewhat more organized wind threat
may emerge if cold pool amalgamation can lead to more organized
clustering. Based on latest radar trends, this appears most probable
along the TN/AL border through the late afternoon hours downstream
from a region with a higher concentration of disorganized convection
(where cold pool consolidation is most probable). Given the overall
poor organization of the convection and weak kinematic fields, watch
issuance is not expected.
..Moore/Leitman.. 05/15/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...
LAT...LON 35408876 35758866 35988837 35958777 35768565 35578522
35098511 34588536 34258595 34278667 34588810 35118866
35408876
