MD 0810 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHERN AL
Mesoscale Discussion 0810
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0227 PM CDT Wed May 17 2023
Areas affected...southern AL
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 171927Z - 172130Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated strong to locally severe thunderstorms capable of
45-60 mph gusts will potentially yield pockets of wind damage.
DISCUSSION...Visible satellite/radar mosaic imagery shows a
developing cluster of thunderstorms moving slowly east-southeast
over southwest AL. Surface observations ahead of the activity
indicate temperatures have warmed into the upper 80s with dewpoints
in the upper 60s. Weak westerly tropospheric flow according to KMOB
VAD data will favor slow, eastward-moving thunderstorms. Objective
analysis shows 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE and forecast soundings show a
very moist profile. Water-loaded downdrafts will likely be the
primary hazard with the stronger cores. Where localized 45-60 mph
gusts occur over the next couple of hours (through 2130 UTC/430pm
CDT), pockets of wind damage are probable.
..Smith/Grams.. 05/17/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...MOB...
LAT...LON 31268821 31668790 31998755 31998699 31668638 31358643
31128670 31058732 31268821
