MD 0822 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0822
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0143 PM CDT Fri May 19 2023
Areas affected...portions of northern and central Texas
Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely
Valid 191843Z - 191945Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent
SUMMARY...A severe thunderstorm watch will be needed by 3 pm CDT
across portions of northern and central Texas. Large to very large
hail and isolated strong gusts will be the main hazards with this
activity through around 9 pm CDT.
DISCUSSION...Strong heating along an outflow boundary draped from
north TX into west-central TX ahead of the main synoptic cold front
is aiding in moderate destabilization. An extensive cumulus field
near the surface boundary has been modestly deepening over the past
hour. Additional heating with surface dewpoints in the upper 60s to
near 70 F should allow for further destabilization, with MLCAPE
values expected to approach 3000 J/kg. Vertical shear will remain
somewhat modest, but mildly increasing midlevel winds by late
afternoon will allow for effective shear magnitudes around 35 kt.
Transient supercells and multi-cell clusters will be the main
convective mode late this afternoon into this evening.
Elongated/straight forecast hodographs amid large CAPE above 850 mb
suggest large to very large hail up to 2.5 inches will be possible
(especially across central TX). Steep low-level lapse rates may also
support sporadic strong outflow, especially via storm
mergers/interactions or if any upscale development occurs.
..Leitman/Grams.. 05/19/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...
LAT...LON 31279701 30939784 30629956 30560071 30710116 30800123
31130124 31650114 31970093 32120037 32209970 32309891
32629794 33169703 33259674 33219652 33009634 32639622
32039629 31809640 31279701
