MD 0825 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 229… FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN INTO CENTRAL TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0825
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0533 PM CDT Fri May 19 2023
Areas affected...portions of southwestern into central Texas
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 229...
Valid 192233Z - 200030Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 229
continues.
SUMMARY...The severe threat should continue across Severe
Thunderstorm Watch 229 into the evening hours. Large hail and
damaging gusts will be the primary threat with the stronger, longer
lasting storms.
DISCUSSION...MRMS mosaic radar imagery depicts an increase in
convective coverage and intensity ahead of a southward-sagging cold
front in southwestern into central TX, with several cells showing an
increase in 50 dBZ values 25-45 kft in altitude. These storms
continue in an environment characterized by deep low-level moisture
and steep boundary layer lapse rates, contributing to 1000-2500 J/kg
of thin MLCAPE (per 22z mesoanalysis). RAP forecast soundings
suggest that roughly unidirectional vertical wind profiles with
speed shear are supporting elongated hodographs, which are adequate
for supporting multicells and splitting supercells that are in
progress per evaluation of regional radars. These storms should
continue to pose a large hail threat as well as damaging gusts
(given the well-mixed boundary layer) into the evening hours.
..Squitieri.. 05/19/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...MAF...
LAT...LON 30940324 31610350 32410223 32380168 32340077 32369991
32129918 31639848 31049821 30519848 29899903 29500021
29420081 29570178 29840233 30240286 30940324
