MD 0828 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SWRN-WRN KS / SERN CO / OK PANHANDLE
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0828
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0229 PM CDT THU MAY 17 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN-WRN KS / SERN CO / OK PANHANDLE
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 171929Z - 172130Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...WIDELY SCTD HIGH-BASED TSTMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
AND POSE A SEVERE WIND GUST THREAT.
DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A COMPACT VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS ERN CO AS A BELT OF 30 KT H5 FLOW WRAPS AROUND
ITS SERN SEMICIRCLE AND OVERSPREADS THE DISCUSSION AREA. DURING THE
PAST HR...A GROWING CU/TCU FIELD HAS ELONGATED FROM SW TO NE OF THE
APPROACHING UPPER DISTURBANCE FROM 25 MI SE TAD TO ITR. A DRY
WELL-MIXED AND VERY DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER HAS DEVELOPED FEATURING DRY
ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES IN THE LOWEST SEVERAL KM. CONVECTION-ALLOWING
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN LARGE AGREEMENT IN DEPICTING SUBSTANTIAL
OUTFLOW WINDS AS THE STORMS CONTINUE TO MATURE. GIVEN THE
STRENGTHENING WIND FIELDS AND VERY FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATE
PROFILE...THERE IS FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE OF ISOLD STRONG TO SEVERE
WIND GUSTS OCCURRING IN A RELATIVELY CONCENTRATED AREA FROM THE OK
PANHANDLE NWD INTO ERN CO/WRN KS. GIVEN THE COOLER TEMPS ALOFT...A
RISK FOR ISOLD HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS.
..SMITH/HART.. 05/17/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...
LAT...LON 36680268 37190315 39660265 39820113 39129998 37400013
36630112 36440199 36680268
via SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0828.html
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