MD 0840 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 281… FOR ERN NEB…CNTRL KS…WRN IA
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0840
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0541 PM CDT SAT MAY 19 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NEB...CNTRL KS...WRN IA
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 281...
VALID 192241Z - 192345Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 281
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...PRIMARILY LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND RISKS
SHOULD BE PEAKING THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH A MARGINAL
SEVERE THREAT LIKELY TO DEVELOP NE OF WW 281 IN NWRN IA. THIS AREA
IS BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.
DISCUSSION...BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WERE PRESENT ALONG A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDED
FROM NEAR OLU SWWD TO A SURFACE LOW IN NUCKOLLS COUNTY NEB...AND
THEN SWD TO AROUND 20 NE P28. NUMEROUS REPORTS OF LARGE HAIL /SOME
SIGNIFICANT/ HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED WITH THESE SUPERCELLS. BUT WITH
CELL MERGERS/UPSCALE GROWTH RESULTING IN DISRUPTIVE INTERFERENCE OF
UPDRAFTS...ALONG WITH RELATIVELY LARGE SURFACE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS
AND COMPOSITE OUTFLOW/EFFECTIVE FRONT SURGING AHEAD OF THE
CONVECTION...OVERALL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE AT/NEAR PEAK...LIKELY
WANING AFTER SUNSET. THE AFOREMENTIONED REASONING SHOULD CONTINUE TO
MITIGATE A MORE ROBUST TORNADO THREAT...BEYOND WEAK/BRIEF TOUCHDOWNS
MOST PROBABLE JUST E/NE OF THE SURFACE LOW IN SERN NEB.
AN MCS CLUSTER MAY DEVELOP NEWD ALONG THE FRONT INTO NWRN IA...WHICH
IS GENERALLY SUPPORTED BY CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODEL GUIDANCE. THE
SEVERE THREAT MAY BE MORE TEMPERED BY THE TIME CONVECTION FORMS NE
OF WW 281...BREEDING UNCERTAINTY IN THE NECESSITY OF A DOWNSTREAM
WW.
..GRAMS.. 05/19/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...
LAT...LON 41339760 42839626 43349573 43369511 43069448 42719451
41229541 40239591 37529666 37289797 37329823 37939822
39849811 40189818 41339760
via SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0840.html
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