SPC MD 842

MD 0842 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 281…282… FOR S-CNTRL KS…N-CNTRL OK


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0842
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0703 PM CDT SAT MAY 19 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...S-CNTRL KS...N-CNTRL OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 281...282...

VALID 200003Z - 200100Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
281...282...CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...TORNADO THREAT WILL LIKELY WANE IN THE NEXT HOUR WITH
TSTMS DEVELOPING SWWD ALONG THE COLD FRONT ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER.

DISCUSSION...NUMEROUS TORNADO REPORTS HAVE OCCURRED IN THE PAST HOUR
WITH A TSTM CLUSTER JUST AHEAD OF AND ALONG A COLD FRONT ANALYZED
FROM AROUND 20 W CNK TO 20 SE P28. THIS THREAT HAS BEEN MAXIMIZED
ALONG THE N/S TO NE/SW INFLECTION POINT OF THE FRONT WITH THE
ORIENTATION OF THE CLUSTER...INTERCEPTING THE LOW-LEVEL MOIST AXIS
CHARACTERIZED BY LOWER 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS. THIS THREAT WILL WANE
AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW HAS COMMENCED WEAKENING PER TIME-SERIES OF ICT VWP
DATA. THIS WEAKENING SHOULD PERSIST WITH FLOW BECOMING INCREASINGLY
DIVERGENT AS WELL WITH NEB SHORT WAVE IMPULSE PROGRESSING AWAY FROM
THE REGION.

..GRAMS.. 05/20/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...

LAT...LON   37199837 37569790 37709762 37649742 37359733 36979750
            36719777 36589807 36589835 36709854 36789858 37199837

via SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0842.html