SPC MD 846

MD 0846 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 284… FOR NWRN TX…SERN TO N-CNTRL OK…SERN KS


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0846
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1109 PM CDT SAT MAY 19 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN TX...SERN TO N-CNTRL OK...SERN KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 284...

VALID 200409Z - 200515Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 284
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...PRIMARY THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE WIND APPEARS TO
BE CONFINED TO THE SRN PORTION OF WW 284 ACROSS SWRN OK. BUT THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY MARGINAL OVERNIGHT.

DISCUSSION...MID-LEVEL REFLECTIVITY HAS SUBSTANTIALLY WEAKENED
DURING THE PAST HOUR IN MOST OF SERN KS TO N-CNTRL OK. HERE...IT
APPEARS THAT INCREASING MLCIN HAS OVERCOME MARGINAL WARM SECTOR
SURFACE DEW POINTS FROM THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S. SEVERE TSTMS HAVE
REMAINED OVER SWRN OK WITH SEVERAL REPORTS OF LARGE HAIL /A FEW
SIGNIFICANT/...WITH MORE PRONOUNCED INFLOW AMIDST HIGHER SURFACE DEW
POINTS IN THE LOWER 60S. THESE CELLS HAVE BEGUN TO PROPAGATE MORE
E/SEWD RATHER THAN S/SEWD. THIS TYPE OF MOVEMENT SHOULD BE CONDUCIVE
FOR A TRANSITION TO SEVERE WINDS...NOTED BY A RECENT 50 KT GUST AT
THE HOBART OK-MESONET SITE. BUT WITH INCREASING MLCIN AND DECREASING
DEEP-LAYER FLOW AS THE MID-MO VALLEY SHORT WAVE IMPULSE CONTINUES TO
PROGRESS NEWD...THE SEVERE THREAT HERE SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY
MARGINAL/LOCALIZED OVERNIGHT.

..GRAMS.. 05/20/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...ICT...OUN...

LAT...LON   34909963 35479893 36639771 37289681 37579596 37649544
            37379502 37119514 35349720 34589803 34039891 34059961
            34439988 34909963

via SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0846.html