MD 0856 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0856
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0347 PM CDT Wed May 24 2023
Areas affected...portions of southwest Texas
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 242047Z - 242215Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...A few strong to severe storms may evolve with a risk for
wind and hail. It is uncertain if a weather watch is needed.
DISCUSSION...Across portions of southwest TX, afternoon satellite
imagery showed thunderstorms developing across the Davis Mountains
and Trans Pecos region of southwest TX. Warm surface temperatures at
the nose of a plume of steeper low and mid-level lapse rates were
supporting moderate buoyancy with 2000-2500 J/kg of MLCAPE present.
Vertical shear of 35-40 kt is sufficient for storm organization into
supercells capable of large to very large hail and perhaps isolated
severe wind gusts. Storm coverage remains somewhat uncertain owing
to very weak forcing for ascent. Some model guidance hints that
additional storms may develop along the dryline and spread
east/southeast late this afternoon/evening. Should this occur, a
locally greater severe threat may materialize necessitating a
Weather Watch.
..Lyons/Grams.. 05/24/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...SJT...MAF...
LAT...LON 31860475 32220446 32330376 32080302 31750249 31430221
30620208 30290202 29740219 29530261 28820317 28850375
29520395 30200420 30660445 31090460 31860475
