SPC MD 867

MD 0867 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SERN CO…SWRN KS…OK/TX PANHANDLES…NERN NM


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0867
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0206 PM CDT TUE MAY 22 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN CO...SWRN KS...OK/TX PANHANDLES...NERN NM

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 221906Z - 222030Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OVER SERN CO...NERN
NM AND THE WRN TX/OK PANHANDLES DURING THE NEXT FEW HRS. THIS
ACTIVITY IS THEN FORECAST TO SPREAD E-SEWD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
THE OK PANHANDLE...NRN TX PANHANDLE...AND PORTIONS OF SWRN KS.
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. WW IS
UNLIKELY.

DISCUSSION...STRONG SURFACE HEATING IS OCCURRING OVER NERN NM INTO
SERN CO...WITH TEMPERATURES AT 19Z NEAR 90F. THIS IS AIDING IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AND SUBSEQUENT
DEEPENING OF HIGH BASED CUMULUS. AS THE HIGH BASED CU ENCOUNTERS
SLIGHTLY GREATER MOISTURE /LOW TO MID 50S DEWPOINTS/ OVER THE TX/OK
PANHANDLES AND SWRN KS...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED...AS DEPICTED IN 16Z HRRR. RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
STORMS WILL OCCUR IN AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY STEEP LOW AND
MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES...MLCAPE VALUES FROM 1000-2000 J/KG...AND
STRONGLY VEERING DEEP-LAYER WIND PROFILES. THIS MAY FAVOR ISOLATED
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE AREA.

..GARNER/WEISS.. 05/22/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

LAT...LON   35840428 37070416 37890313 37860168 37280041 36610019
            35740087 35170304 35840428

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