MD 0087 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF FAR NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA
Mesoscale Discussion 0087
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0157 PM CST Sun Jan 22 2023
Areas affected...portions of far northern Florida into southern
Georgia
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 221957Z - 222200Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...An uptick in thunderstorm intensity may occur over the
next few hours, with isolated strong to potentially severe
thunderstorms possible. A damaging gust or tornado should be the
main threats with the strongest storms. A WW issuance is unlikely
given the expected sparse nature of the severe threat.
DISCUSSION...MRMS mosaic and regional radar imagery and NLDN
lightning data all suggest that thunderstorms may be intensifying
ahead of a weak surface low and associated cold front along the
FL/AL/GA border area. Ahead of the surface low, adequate low-level
warm-air advection and diurnal heating have modified the boundary
layer at least as far north as the FL/GA border, with 70 F
temperatures and upper 60s F dewpoints becoming common. 19Z
mesoanalysis and 18Z RAP forecast soundings characterize the
warm-sector with 500-1000 J/kg of thin MLCAPE amid mainly straight
hodographs (as also supported by regional VADs). As such, linear
segments and semi-discrete cells may organize and intensify enough
to support an isolated severe threat through mid-afternoon. A couple
of damaging gusts are possible. However, a tornado or two may occur,
especially along the warm front, where locally backed surface winds
may contribute to enough streamwise vorticity/low-level hodograph
curvature to support low-level updraft rotation.
Still, the overall severe threat is expected to remain isolated and
a WW issuance appears unlikely at this time.
..Squitieri/Hart.. 01/22/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...FFC...TAE...
LAT...LON 30968480 31658410 31888356 32078297 32088235 31788154
31468122 30588153 30298213 30188335 30248426 30358478
30588505 30968480
