MD 0882 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH LIKELY FOR PARTS OF EAST-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0882
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0111 PM CDT Sat May 27 2023
Areas affected...Parts of east-central New Mexico and west Texas
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely
Valid 271811Z - 272015Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...The risk of severe storms capable of large to very large
hail, damaging winds, and a couple tornadoes will increase between
19-21Z. A watch is likely this afternoon.
DISCUSSION...Latest visible satellite imagery indicates deepening
cumulus focused along a lee trough immediately east of the higher
terrain in eastern NM this afternoon. Continued diurnal heating amid
moist east-southeasterly upslope flow (upper 50s dewpoints) will
support widely scattered thunderstorm development during the next
couple hours -- with an initial focus near the intersection of the
lee trough and an east-west-oriented remnant outflow boundary in
east-central NM.
Strengthening west-southwesterly midlevel flow (per regional VWP)
will allow storms to spread eastward off the higher terrain into an
environment characterized by moderate surface-based buoyancy (around
2500 J/kg MLCAPE) and 30-40 kt of effective shear. Long, generally
straight hodographs and subtle large-scale ascent should initially
favor discrete/semi-discrete splitting supercells capable of large
to very large hail (around 2 inch diameter) and damaging winds.
However, backed surface winds/enhanced low-level shear and sheltered
boundary-layer moisture in the vicinity of the remnant outflow
boundary could allow for a couple tornadoes with any
stronger/longer-lived updrafts. With time, enhanced outflow
generation and cell mergers could yield localized upscale growth
into several organized clusters.
..Weinman/Hart.. 05/27/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...
LAT...LON 35040271 34930234 34780201 34450188 33760195 33550211
33120265 33070314 33130374 33290425 33460464 33740496
34100522 34620537 34980539 35370526 35510503 35590479
35550434 35430396 35300358 35170313 35040271
