SPC MD 884

MD 0884 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR ERN CO


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0884
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0837 PM CDT WED MAY 23 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN CO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 240137Z - 240300Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WILL EXIST OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.
ISOLATED NATURE OF THE THREAT WILL PRECLUDE WW ISSUANCE.

DISCUSSION...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INITIATED IN THE STRONG
UPSLOPE FLOW NEAR THE FRONT RANGE. SURFACE OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS
INDICATES A HIGH SHEAR/VERY LOW INSTABILITY ENVIRONMENT WITH SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS INDICATING LARGE TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREADS. KPUX
RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTS WHAT ARE LIKELY LOW PRECIPITATION SUPERCELLS
MOVING E ACROSS E CO. KPUX VAD INDICATES 0-3KM SRH VALUES OVER 600
M2/S2. DESPITE THESE LARGE VALUES...THE VERY LOW CAPE AND DRY
LOW-LEVELS WILL KEEP THE TORNADO THREAT VERY LOW. THESE SAME FACTORS
ARE EXPECTED TO KEEP THE SEVERE HAIL THREAT LOW. DCAPE VALUES AOA
1000 J/KG EXISTS AROUND THESE STORMS AND PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT
APPEARS TO BE STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST FOR 1-2 HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATING NEAR THE CO/KS BORDER.

..MOSIER/HART.. 05/24/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...

LAT...LON   38120446 38510448 38810432 39440389 39630346 39740272
            39550161 38930144 38240155 37830193 37780239 37860279
            38120446

via SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0884.html