SPC MD 886

MD 0886 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 293… FOR PARTS OF NRN KS AND CENTRAL/ERN NEB


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0886
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1029 PM CDT WED MAY 23 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NRN KS AND CENTRAL/ERN NEB

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 293...

VALID 240329Z - 240500Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 293
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...INITIAL BAND OF STORMS HAS WEAKENED...BUT ELEVATED
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO EXPAND W OF THE MO RIVER -- WHICH WILL
LIKELY REQUIRE EITHER NEW WW OR EXTENSION IN TIME/AREA OF WW 293.

DISCUSSION...LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWS ELEVATED STORMS INCREASING
ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF NEB...TO THE COOL SIDE OF THE FRONT AND NEAR
THE NOSE OF A 60 KT SLY LOW-LEVEL JET.  WITH AMPLE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY AND STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT...EXPECT STORMS TO CONTINUE
INCREASING IN COVERAGE...WITH EMBEDDED/STRONGER CELLS LIKELY TO
REMAIN CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL FOR SEVERAL
HOURS.  THUS -- EXTENSION OF WW 293 OR NEW WW ISSUANCE WILL LIKELY
BE REQUIRED...PENDING COORDINATION WITH AFFECTED OFFICES.

..GOSS.. 05/24/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...

LAT...LON   39319817 38689908 39009973 39690041 40830066 41660004
            41809997 42789790 42659690 42039672 40679715 39319817

via SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0886.html