MD 0891 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR OK PANHANDLE…NORTHERN TX PANHANDLE
Mesoscale Discussion 0891
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0652 PM CDT Sun May 28 2023
Areas affected...OK Panhandle...northern TX Panhandle
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 282352Z - 290115Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...A squall line capable of isolated severe gusts (60-75 mph)
is becoming more likely during the evening. Large hail is possible
with the discrete supercells ahead of the line.
DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic shows a developing squall line from far
northeast NM east-northeastward into far southwest KS. Visible
satellite imagery shows a residual outflow boundary arcing from the
TX Low Rolling Plains northwestward to the western part of the TX
Panhandle and extending northward to the CO/KS/OK border.
Surface observations indicate relatively moist conditions with lower
60s deg F dewpoints and temperatures in the mid 70s. RAP forecast
soundings for current surface conditions indicate a very unstable
airmass is in place across the TX Panhandle with MLCAPE around 2500
J/kg. Although deep-layer shear is marginal for supercells, it is
more than adequate for organized storm structures. The steep
700-500 mb lapse rates in excess of 8 deg C/km will aid in longevity
of the storm cluster despite an only modest LLJ increase this
evening. A large hail threat will accompany any discrete updrafts
before additional storm congealing occurs and severe gusts become
the main threat.
..Smith/Grams.. 05/28/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...DDC...AMA...PUB...ABQ...
LAT...LON 36720309 37260214 37440107 37060057 36340059 35700214
35830286 36180318 36720309
