MD 0893 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 0893
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0124 PM CDT Mon May 29 2023
Areas affected...Parts of western South Dakota
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 291824Z - 292100Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...The potential for isolated large hail and perhaps strong
to locally severe gusts should increase during the next few hours
across western South Dakota.
DISCUSSION...Latest water vapor loops depict a low-amplitude
shortwave trough tracking eastward across eastern MT this afternoon.
Along the southern periphery of this feature, regional VWP data
shows a belt of strengthening westerly midlevel flow overspreading
parts of western South Dakota -- where isolated convective
initiation is ongoing in the vicinity of the Black Hills. Continued
diurnal heating ahead of this activity (and removal of low-level
CINH) should support a modest uptick in convective intensity given
the strengthening deep-layer shear (around 25-30 kt of effective
shear). Given subtle large-scale ascent over this region,
discrete/semi-discrete storms should favor isolated large hail,
though locally severe gusts are also possible with the stronger
cores. The overall severe threat should remain too isolated/marginal
for a watch.
..Weinman/Hart.. 05/29/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...UNR...
LAT...LON 43470346 43620376 43870387 44760391 45250393 45550390
45790370 45860327 45860277 45760243 45520223 45280209
44860207 44450210 43980218 43610235 43440271 43420311
43470346
