MD 0009 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR MIDDLE TN INTO FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL KY
Mesoscale Discussion 0009
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0448 PM CST Mon Jan 02 2023
Areas affected...Middle TN into far south-central KY
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 022248Z - 030045Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated damaging wind and marginal hail will be possible
as a storm cluster moves northeastward this evening. Watch issuance
is unlikely.
DISCUSSION...A thunderstorm cluster has recently organized across
middle TN, along the eastern periphery of the buoyant warm sector
associated with a gradually deepening cyclone across the southern
Plains. Modest buoyancy (MLCAPE of around 500 J/kg) is in place
downstream of this cluster, with effective shear of 40-45 kt
supporting some storm organization. Limited instability will likely
temper the severe threat with this cluster as it moves
northeastward, but locally damaging gusts and/or isolated marginal
hail will be possible into early evening. Watch issuance is
currently considered unlikely.
..Dean/Thompson.. 01/02/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...
LAT...LON 35678663 35488783 36328745 36788667 36758606 36268610
35798652 35678663
