SPC MD 902

MD 0902 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR FAR NRN KS/S CENTRAL AND ERN NEB INTO WRN IA


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0902
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0917 PM CDT FRI MAY 25 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR NRN KS/S CENTRAL AND ERN NEB INTO WRN IA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 260217Z - 260345Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...INCREASING CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ATOP A COOL
BOUNDARY LAYER SUGGESTS HAIL THREAT MAY BECOME GREAT ENOUGH TO
WARRANT WW ISSUANCE.

DISCUSSION...LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWS CONVECTION BEGINNING TO DEVELOP
ACROSS FAR NRN KS -- N OF THE ONGOING CENTRAL KS SUPERCELL STORMS --
AND INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL NEB.  THESE STORMS ARE DEVELOPING IN
RESPONSE TO AN INCREASING LOW-LEVEL JET...ATOP A COOL/STABLE
BOUNDARY LAYER ABOVE WHICH CAPE VALUES OF AROUND 1000 J/KG ARE
SUGGESTED /PER THE EVENING OMAHA NEB RAOB/.  WITH SHEAR THROUGH THE
CLOUD-BEARING LAYER SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS...THIS SETUP
APPEARS TO SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.  WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR EVOLUTION OF THE CONVECTION -- AS INDICATIONS OF
POTENTIAL FOR SUBSTANTIAL COVERAGE OF STRONGER CELLS COULD WARRANT
WW ISSUANCE.

..GOSS/HART.. 05/26/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...TOP...GID...LBF...GLD...

LAT...LON   39959749 39509960 40230029 41000002 42039796 42649575
            42909392 42109344 40809323 40209525 39959749

via SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0902.html