MD 0910 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS ERN NM…W TX…EXTREME WRN OK…TX/OK PANHANDLES…SWRN KS…EXTREME SERN CO.
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0910
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0246 PM CDT SAT MAY 26 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS ERN NM...W TX...EXTREME WRN OK...TX/OK
PANHANDLES...SWRN KS...EXTREME SERN CO.
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 261946Z - 262145Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT
SUMMARY...THROUGH 23Z...TSTMS MAY DEVELOP OVER TRANS-PECOS AND LOWER
PECOS VALLEY REGIONS OF W TX AND SERN NM...THEN FARTHER N INVOF
TX/NM BORDER. OTHER/ISOLATED CONVECTION IS DEEPENING OVER NRN TX
PANHANDLE. COVERAGE SHOULD BECOME WIDELY SCATTERED AND LOCALLY
CLUSTERED...WITH DAMAGING GUSTS BEING MAIN CONCERN. ISOLATED LARGE
HAIL ALSO IS POSSIBLE. WW MAY BE NEEDED FOR SOME PORTION OF THIS
AREA AS CONVECTIVE/MESOSCALE TRENDS BECOME BETTER FOCUSED.
DISCUSSION...19Z SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWED DEVELOPING/DEEPENING
LEE-SIDE CYCLONE IN NRN CO WITH INTENSE WARM FRONT EXTENDING TO ITS
E. SWD FROM THAT FRONT...DOUBLE DRYLINE STRUCTURE WAS
ANALYZED--EACH BEING SOME WHAT DIFFUSE...
1. WRN BOUNDARY...SEGREGATING NATIVE 20S/30S F SFC DEW POINTS
ORIGINATING IN DOWNSLOPE TRAJECTORIES FROM UPPER 40S/50S DEEP-MIXED
AIR...AND DRAWN FROM ERN CO SSWWD NEAR SPD...CVS...ROW...AND
GDP..THEN SSEWD INTO WRN BIG-BEND REGION OF TX.
2. ERN BOUNDARY...WITH DEW POINTS MID 50S TO 60S TO ITS E AND STG
HEATING/MIXING OCCURRING ON BOTH SIDES...DRAWN FROM NEAR MCK TO
BETWEEN HLC-HYS THEN SSWWD ACROSS BEAVER COUNTY OK...TO BETWEEN
PYX-HHF...TO NEAR HOB AND INK...THEN SWD INTO BIG BEND AREA.
MOISTURE GRADIENT MAY CONSOLIDATE SOMEWHAT AS HEATING/MIXING
CONTINUES...BUT SHOULD REMAIN BROADER THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL
SRN-PLAINS DRYLINES GIVEN SLY WIND COMPONENT ON BOTH SIDES AND LACK
OF SUBSTANTIAL CONVERGENCE.
VIS IMAGERY SHOWS TCU AND INCREASING COVERAGE OF DEEP CU OVER
GUADALUPE/SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS REGION OF SE NM AND W TX...SWD ACROSS
NRN CHIHUAHUA. PATCHES OF DEEP CU ALSO ARE EVIDENT INVOF CVS NEAR
WRN DRYLINE...AND OVER NERN TX PANHANDLE. MASS CONVERGENCE
GENERALLY IS WEAK ACROSS ENTIRE REGION EXCEPT FOR SOME UPSLOPE
COMPONENT IN SERN NM...WITH CINH RAPIDLY WEAKENING OVER BROAD AREA.
HENCE...TSTM FORMATION AND AT LEAST ISOLATED SVR POTENTIAL COVERS
BROAD SWATH OF SRN HIGH PLAINS. EVEN WHEN MODIFIED FOR LOWER DEW
POINTS BETWEEN WRN BOUNDARY AND MOUNTAINS...FCST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT
MAINTENANCE OF SFC-BASED EFFECTIVE-INFLOW PARCELS. MLCAPE SHOULD
INCREASE WITH TIME FOR ANOTHER 1-2 HOURS....AND ALSO WITH EWD EXTENT
ACROSS EACH DRYLINE. BY 22Z...EXPECT VALUES IN 500-1000 J/KG OVER
ERN NM TO AROUND 2000 J/KG NEAR ERN BORDER OF TX PANHANDLE.
SUBCLOUD LAYER WILL BE WELL-MIXED WITH NEAR DRY-ADIABATIC LAPSE
RATES...SUPPORTING ENHANCED DOWNDRAFT POTENTIAL. DEEP-LAYER AND
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR GENERALLY IS WEAK...EXCEPT FOR SMALL AREA OF 35-40
KT EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDES EVIDENT OVER PERMIAN BASIN
REGION. HOWEVER...STG UPPER/ANVIL-LEVEL WINDS MAY AID IN TSTM
ORGANIZATION.
..EDWARDS/CARBIN.. 05/26/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...PUB...ABQ...
LAT...LON 29480423 31140461 32700483 33950473 34970444 36760342
37940214 38190063 37089990 36009957 34449994 33410065
31830163 29790207 29870232 29750235 29730263 29220288
29180298 28980308 28980331 29140354 29200381 29270379
29320400 29480423
via SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0910.html
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