SPC MD 911

MD 0911 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH LIKELY FOR SCNTRL AND ERN NE AND


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0911
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0348 PM CDT SAT MAY 26 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...SCNTRL AND ERN NE AND

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 262048Z - 262215Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS
AS AIR MASS CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE AND CAPPING INVERSION WEAKENS.
INDICATIONS ARE STORMS MAY DEVELOP RAPIDLY AND A WW WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED.

DISCUSSION...WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S AND
DEWPOINTS HOLDING IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S...MLCAPE VALUES ARE
AROUND 2500 TO 3500 J/KG.  VERY STRONG CAPPING INVERSION HAS BEEN
ACTING TO SUPPRESS SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. WITH THE FIRST OF TWO
WEAK IMPULSES MOVING INTO SRN NE...MID CLOUD DEVELOPMENT/SCATTERED
WEAK RADAR ECHOS INDICATE THAT LIFTING IN THE CRITICAL AREA OF THE
CAP IS OCCURRING.  ALSO...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALONG WITH UPPER LEVEL
POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANALYSIS SHOWS SECONDARY UPPER SYSTEM MOVING
INTO THE SRN KS. AS THIS IMPULSE CONTINUES NORTHWARD...ADDITIONAL
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
EASTERN NE INTO THE EVENING.

ONCE INITIAL STORM DEVELOPMENT TAKES PLACE WITH UPDRAFTS TAPPING THE
LOWER LEVEL INSTABILITY...STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY INCREASE
ACROSS THE AREA.  DEEP LAYER SHEAR CONTINUES TO INCREASE TO 40 TO 50
KTS.  A GREATER TORNADO THREAT MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE WARM FRONT
SITUATED FROM SW NE TO NERN NE.

..BOTHWELL/CARBIN.. 05/26/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...GLD...

LAT...LON   40000002 40290039 40880045 41450021 41949938 42409881
            42689804 42619698 42319652 41379601 40869591 40449593
            40209671 39999802 39969913 40000002

via SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0911.html