MD 0915 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF WESTERN OK…FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL KS…AND FAR NORTHWEST TX
Mesoscale Discussion 0915
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0336 PM CDT Thu Jun 01 2023
Areas affected...Parts of western OK...far south-central KS...and
far northwest TX
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 012036Z - 012230Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Marginally severe hail and strong to locally severe gusts
will be possible this afternoon. A watch is not expected.
DISCUSSION...Isolated to widely scattered storms are evolving over
western Oklahoma this afternoon -- along the eastern edge of outflow
from earlier convection over the TX Panhandle. Downstream, efficient
diurnal heating of a moist boundary layer (middle 60s surface
dewpoints) is destabilizing inflow for this activity. While VWP data
shows generally weak midlevel flow over the area, a veering
low/midlevel winds profile combined with the destabilizing air mass
could support a few loosely organized updrafts capable of sporadic
marginally severe hail and strong to locally severe gusts this
afternoon. Any severe threat should remain too isolated for a watch.
..Weinman/Guyer.. 06/01/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...ICT...FWD...OUN...DDC...SJT...
LAT...LON 33939975 34319968 34939946 36089931 37139921 37299884
37269841 36979818 36439808 35609810 34669827 33769846
33429867 33379914 33449937 33629958 33939975
