SPC MD 918

MD 0918 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR SWRN KS THROUGH THE TX AND OK PANHANDLES


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0918
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0935 PM CDT SAT MAY 26 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN KS THROUGH THE TX AND OK PANHANDLES

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 270235Z - 270400Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STORMS MOVING INTO SWRN KS AND THE OK/TX PANHANDLES HAVE
SHOWN A RECENT INCREASE IN INTENSITY AND ORGANIZATION AND POSE A
THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL. CURRENT THINKING
IS THAT STORMS MAY POSE A SEVERE RISK UNTIL 04Z OR 05Z BEFORE A
DECREASING TREND IS ESTABLISHED. IF STORMS CONTINUE TO ORGANIZE...A
WW MIGHT BE REQUIRED.

DISCUSSION...STORMS HAVE ORGANIZED INTO A LINE ALONG A CONSOLIDATING
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM SWRN KS INTO THE TX/OK PANHANDLES. ACTIVITY IS
MOVING TOWARD A MORE UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MLCAPE FROM 1000-1500
J/KG. SLY LLJ HAS STRENGTHENED TO 50 KT WHICH WILL ENHANCE
CONVERGENCE AND MESOSCALE ASCENT ALONG LEADING OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY...HELPING TO SUSTAIN A FORWARD PROPAGATING SYSTEM.
HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WILL INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES WITH ONSET OF NOCTURNAL COOLING WHICH
INCREASES UNCERTAINTY REGARDING LONGEVITY OF THE SEVERE THREAT.
EXPECTATION IS THAT SEVERE THREAT WILL PROBABLY PERSIST FOR AT LEAST
A COUPLE HOURS BEFORE STORMS ARE SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACTED BY THE
INCREASINGLY HOSTILE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT.

..DIAL/HART.. 05/27/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...GLD...AMA...

LAT...LON   37120140 39020120 39260010 38269907 36799996 36310130
            37120140

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