MD 0922 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR EASTERN MONTANA INTO FAR NORTHEASTERN WYOMING
Mesoscale Discussion 0922
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0246 PM CDT Fri Jun 02 2023
Areas affected...eastern Montana into far northeastern Wyoming
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 021946Z - 022145Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...Marginal wind and hail threat through the afternoon and
early evening.
DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm development has been ongoing across
eastern Montana this afternoon. A few of these have shown recent
upticks in intensity over the last hour, as MLCAPE around 1000-1500
J/kg has slowly been advecting westward along southeasterly flow
into eastern Montana. Deep layer shear around 25-30 kts is observed
from KGGW and KBIL. Given the increasing instability and modest deep
layer shear, a few more organized thunderstorms and a transient
supercell or two will be possible through the afternoon and early
evening. Threats will include hail and gusty winds. Given weak
mid-level lapse rates and weak forcing for ascent (mainly terrain
driven), the threat will likely remain localized. As such, a watch
is unlikely to be needed.
..Thornton/Grams.. 06/02/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...UNR...BYZ...GGW...
LAT...LON 46810812 47300797 47740737 47980663 48020595 47930551
47310481 46940468 46120478 45880462 45290430 45160426
44720437 44560462 44560555 45170687 45650732 46810812
