SPC MD 924

MD 0924 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH LIKELY FOR PORTIONS WRN/CENTRAL KS…NWRN OK…NERN PANHANDLE OF TX…BEAVER COUNTY IN OK PANHANDLE.


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0924
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0310 PM CDT SUN MAY 27 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS WRN/CENTRAL KS...NWRN OK...NERN PANHANDLE
OF TX...BEAVER COUNTY IN OK PANHANDLE.

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 272010Z - 272145Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED TSTMS FCST TO DEVELOP INVOF
DRYLINE...WITH INCREASING SVR POTENTIAL THROUGH REMAINDER AFTERNOON
INTO AT LEAST EARLY EVENING.  MAIN THREAT IS DAMAGING GUSTS...WITH
OCNL LARGE HAIL ALSO POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...19Z SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWED FRONTAL-WAVE LOW INVOF
KS/NEB BORDER BETWEEN HLC-MCK...COLD FRONT SWWD ACROSS LOGAN COUNTY
KS...BECOMING WARM FRONT THAT ARCS NWWD INTO ANOTHER FRONTAL-WAVE
LOW BETWEEN LIC-AKO.  THOSE LOWS SHOULD BLEND AND RESULT IN
CONSOLIDATED SFC CYCLONE OVER WRN KS THIS EVENING ALONG FRONT.
DRYLINE WAS ANALYZED FROM KS/NEB LOW SWD BETWEEN HLC-HYS THEN SSWWD
ACROSS NERN TX PANHANDLE BETWEEN PPA-HHF...TO NEAR CAPROCK E LBB.
SLGT EWD MOVEMENT/MIXING OF DRYLINE IS POSSIBLE OVER KS/NW OK
SEGMENT...WHILE PANHANDLE/S PLAINS PORTION STALLS OR EVEN BACKS
SOMEWHAT.  AIR MASS ALONG AND E OF DRYLINE HAS HEATED/DESTABILIZED
STRONGLY...WITH CINH ESSENTIALLY GONE.  NARROW CORRIDOR OF
JUXTAPOSITION BETWEEN ERN RIM OF STRONGEST HEATING AND WRN PORTION
OF MOIST SECTOR...IN MODIFIED SOUNDINGS...YIELDS MLCAPE 2000-2500
J/KG FROM SWRN KS SSWWD ACROSS ERN PANHANDLES...AND OVER NRN KS NEAR
NEB BORDER...WITH SLGT RELATIVE MIN BETWEEN.

VIS IMAGERY SHOWS DEEPENING CU AND TCU OVER NERN TX PANHANDLE AND
NNEWD TO S-CENTRAL KS.  FROM THOSE TOWERS SHOULD EMERGE FIRST
SUBSTANTIAL TSTMS WITHIN 1-2 HOURS...IN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY
EFFECTIVE SHEAR 30-35 KT ATTM...WHICH MAY INCREASE TO 40-50 KT INTO
EVENING.  TORNADO THREAT...WHILE NONZERO...APPEARS MRGL/CONDITIONAL
GIVEN COMBINATION OF FLOW ALOFT STRONGLY PARALLEL TO PROJECTED
CONVECTIVE ORIENTATION...STG MIXING...RELATED LACK OF MORE ROBUST
MOISTURE OVER INFLOW REGION WITH SOMEWHAT HIGH DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS...AND LACK OF STRONGER SHEAR.

..EDWARDS/CARBIN.. 05/27/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...GLD...AMA...

LAT...LON   35870072 37990017 39839944 39909755 38119780 36829885
            36109947 35739993 35870072

via SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0924.html