SPC MD 928

MD 0928 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 305… FOR NERN TX PANHANDLE…NWRN OK THROUGH WCNTRL AND CNTRL KS


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0928
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0617 PM CDT SUN MAY 27 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN TX PANHANDLE...NWRN OK THROUGH WCNTRL AND
CNTRL KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 305...

VALID 272317Z - 280045Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 305
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...STORMS DEVELOPING FROM WCNTRL INTO NCNTRL KS WILL REMAIN
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND INTO MID
EVENING. IT APPEARS THUNDERSTORM INITIATION SOUTH OF THE KS/OK
BORDER IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY UNLIKELY...OR AT BEST MAY REMAIN
VERY SPARSE IN COVERAGE.

DISCUSSION...STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED WITHIN ZONE OF DEEP MIXING AND
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE WRN KS PORTION OF DRYLINE. TRENDS HAVE BEEN
FOR ACTIVITY TO INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES INTO THE MODERATELY UNSTABLE
WARM SECTOR CHARACTERIZED BY 1500-2000 J/KG MLCAPE...STEEP LAPSE
RATES AND 40-50 KT EFFECTIVE DEEP SHEAR. THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY
PERSIST AS DISCRETE MODES NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES LIKELY. PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED
DAMAGING WIND...BUT A SMALL WINDOW FOR A COUPLE OF TORNADOES CANNOT
BE RULED OUT AS THE LLJ STRENGTHENS AND BEFORE THE BOUNDARY LAYER
DECOUPLES.

THE DRYLINE MAY RETREAT SLIGHTLY WWD BEFORE PACIFIC FRONT MERGES
FROM THE WEST LATER THIS EVENING. THIS PROCESS MAY CONTRIBUTE TO
ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER A PORTION OF WCNTRL INTO NCNTRL KS
WITH POSSIBLE UPSCALE LINEAR GROWTH.

..DIAL.. 05/27/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...AMA...

LAT...LON   37859988 39649896 40009803 39499734 37049841 35919900
            35960002 36650013 37859988

via SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0928.html