MD 0939 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF NORTHERN CA
Mesoscale Discussion 0939
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0326 PM CDT Mon Jun 05 2023
Areas affected...Parts of northern CA
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 052026Z - 052230Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...Storms capable of localized strong/severe gusts and
perhaps some hail may increase through the afternoon.
DISCUSSION...Despite generally limited low-level moisture, strong
diurnal heating has resulted in modest destabilization across parts
of northern CA, with MLCAPE increasing to near or above 500 J/kg.
Widely scattered thunderstorms have already initiated, and
additional development is expected through the remainder of the
afternoon, especially across terrain-favored areas. Deep-layer shear
will remain relatively weak, but midlevel easterly flow to the north
of a mid/upper-level low near the coast of southern CA will support
westward-moving cells/clusters through the afternoon.
Steep midlevel lapse rates will support isolated hail potential with
initial storm development across relatively higher elevation areas.
With very steep low-level lapse rates, some threat for localized
strong/severe gusts will accompany any stronger outflow-driven
clusters that spread into the lower elevations. The severe threat is
expected to remain too marginal and isolated for watch issuance.
..Dean/Grams.. 06/05/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...REV...MFR...STO...EKA...
LAT...LON 41452364 41982231 41862089 41142046 40312010 39902042
39722101 39602210 39482326 39922370 40992394 41452364
