MD 0948 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0948
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0450 PM CDT Wed Jun 07 2023
Areas affected...portions of southwestern Texas
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 072150Z - 072315Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Occasional instances of severe hail and wind are possible
with the stronger storms through the remainder of the afternoon into
early evening. The severe threat is expected to remain isolated
enough such that a WW issuance appears unlikely.
DISCUSSION...Multiple multicell clusters and supercells have
developed over the past hour across the TX Trans Pecos region. A
mid-level shortwave trough and associated 7-8 C/km mid-level lapse
rates continue to overspread upper 50s/low 60s F dewpoints,
resulting in increasing buoyancy (1000+ J/kg MLCAPE) and deep-layer
ascent to support the continued intensification of storms. Modest
mid-level flow is also overspreading southwestern Texas, resulting
in lengthy hodographs and accompanying 35-45 kts of effective bulk
shear. Large hail may accompany the stronger storms, with severe
gusts also possible (given the well-mixed boundary layer and 9+ C/km
low-level lapse rates). However, the overall severe threat should
remain relatively isolated and a WW issuance is not currently
expected.
..Squitieri/Hart.. 06/07/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...SJT...MAF...EPZ...
LAT...LON 30250461 31060520 31520556 31900493 32030393 32000250
31530176 30970141 30410157 30080230 29910382 30250461
