SPC MD 951

MD 0951 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NERN OK…EXTREME SERN KS THROUGH SWRN AND CNTRL MO


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0951
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1106 PM CDT MON MAY 28 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN OK...EXTREME SERN KS THROUGH SWRN AND CNTRL MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 290406Z - 290500Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STORMS DEVELOPING FROM NERN OK INTO SWRN AND CNTRL MO WILL
REMAIN CAPABLE OF ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND SOME HAIL THROUGH
06Z. DUE TO THE SHORT DURATION AND ISOLATED NATURE OF ANY SEVERE
EVENTS...WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

DISCUSSION...STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED AND INTENSIFIED ALONG COLD FRONT
FROM NERN OK INTO CNTRL MO...AS WELL AS ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IN
NERN OK. ACTIVITY IS DEVELOPING WITHIN NARROW AXIS OF 1500-2000 J/KG
MLCAPE AND WITHIN A MODEST SHEAR ENVIRONMENT SUGGESTING STORMS WILL
REMAIN ONLY LOOSELY ORGANIZED...BUT CAPABLE OF ISOLATED STRONG WIND
GUSTS AND SOME HAIL. WITH ONSET OF NOCTURNAL COOLING...NO
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN LLJ...AND NARROW EXTENT OF INSTABILITY
AXIS...COVERAGE OF SEVERE EVENTS WILL PROBABLY REMAIN SPARSE.

..DIAL/HART.. 05/29/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TSA...ICT...

LAT...LON   36919659 37519526 38739245 38459165 37769244 36489514
            36249638 36919659

via SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0951.html