MD 0958 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR CENTRAL NE…NORTHWEST/NORTH-CENTRAL KS
Mesoscale Discussion 0958
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0155 PM CDT Fri Jun 09 2023
Areas affected...Central NE...Northwest/North-Central KS
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 091855Z - 092100Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Thunderstorm coverage is expected to increase this
afternoon across central NE and northwest/north-central KS. Isolated
large hail and damaging gusts are possible with these storms.
Limited overall severe coverage is expected to preclude watch
issuance.
DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have developed over northwest KS, in the
vicinity of a remnant MCV drifting gradually eastward. Additional
storms have developed farther northeast into north-central NE, along
a southwestward-progressing outflow boundary. Another cluster of
storms appears to be developing in the vicinity of the surface low
over central NE. Continued mesoscale forcing for ascent from each of
these mechanisms is expected to result in increased thunderstorm
coverage this afternoon. The airmass is moderately buoyant but
weakly sheared, which is expected to result in a predominantly
multicellular mode. Even so, the moderate buoyancy will still result
in robust updrafts, with some storms capable of isolated large hail
and strong downdrafts. Lone supercell over Wheeler County NE appears
to be significantly overachieving given the environment, giving
additional credence to the potential for more severe thunderstorms
this afternoon. However, given the overall environment, the severe
coverage is currently expected to remain isolated, likely precluding
the need for a watch.
..Mosier/Thompson.. 06/09/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...
LAT...LON 38930183 40230080 41850006 42399862 41399775 39439885
38540008 38930183
